PRICES
Regional Tasmania, together with regional Victoria, sits in the middle of the pack in terms of prices.
In the most recent fiscal year, regional Tasmania recorded a geometric mean house price of $540,520, marking a 6.0 per cent increase over the last 12 months and setting a new peak for the state. This growth is part of a larger trend, as regional Tasmania has seen a 124.2 per cent increase in house prices compared to 2013/14, making it the fastest-growing state in terms of price over the past decade.
The first half of the decade witnessed steady price increases, which surged dramatically in 2020/21 and 2021/22, with growth rates of 26.4 per cent and 25.0 per cent, respectively. These years saw a surge in prices across all states, but regional Tasmania benefited the most, with its two-year growth rate being the highest among all states. Despite a slight decline of 0.7 per cent in 2022/23, the only year in the last decade where prices decreased, regional Tasmania’s housing market has remained robust.
SALES
Contrary to the positive trend in prices, sales in regional Tasmania have performed poorly, recording the largest 10-year drop among the six states. In 2013/14, the state recorded 4,822 transactions, peaking at 6,847 in 2017/18 before plummeting to a 10-year low of 3,064 in the last fiscal year. Over the past five years, sales have dropped by 50 per cent, making Tasmania the state with the lowest regional sales and one of only two states that saw a decrease in sales.
The housing market in regional Tasmania presents a paradox where substantial price growth is accompanied by declining sales volumes. While house prices have soared, the number of transactions has dwindled, suggesting a market where affordability issues and reduced buyer activity may be constraining sales.
The price trends across specific SA3 regions illustrate a similar pattern of robust growth. For instance, Launceston, with a population of 89,608, is the largest and most expensive SA3. Located in northern Tasmania at the junction of the North Esk and South Esk rivers, Launceston serves as a major service centre with key industries in tourism, agriculture, wine production, and education. It saw its price increase 125 per cent over the last decade to peak at $604,507.
Burnie - Ulverstone, with a population of 51,368, is a coastal region in northwest Tasmania. Its economy is driven by agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, and tourism, with Burnie serving as a major port city. This area followed closely with a geometric mean house price of $513,334, up 124 per cent over the same period.
Devonport, with a population of 50,113, is a coastal city in northwest Tasmania at the mouth of the Mersey River. It’s a major ferry terminal connecting Tasmania to mainland Australia and an important shipping port for agricultural exports. North East, with a population of 41,101, is a region known for agriculture, forestry, fishing, and a growing wine and ecotourism sector. Both areas reported significant price increases, with their 10-year growth rates reaching 119.4 per cent and 129.3 per cent, respectively.
Meander Valley - West Tamar, the smallest of the five with a population of 25,185, is a region extending northwest from Launceston, including the Tamar Valley. It’s significant for agriculture and viticulture, with a growing boutique food production sector. This area experienced a 123 per cent increase over ten years.
The same downward trend in sales observed in the region is evident across all major SA3s. Launceston, despite having the highest number of transactions at 766, saw a 29.5 per cent decrease in transactions over the past year and a 50.8 per cent decline over the past five years. Burnie - Ulverstone recorded 526 transactions, a 15 per cent decrease in the last year and a 43.5 per cent drop over five years. Devonport and North East experienced even more significant declines, with transactions falling by 35.5 per cent and 35.8 per cent, respectively, over the past year. Meander Valley - West Tamar, the smallest in terms of transactions at 256, also saw a substantial decrease of 23.8 per cent over the past year.
These five SA3s account for 77 per cent of all regional house sales in Tasmania, the largest share among the top five SA3s in any state.